ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 200 AM PDT SUN JUN 04 2006 A SEQUENCE OF MICROWAVE PASSES...THE MOST RECENT AT 0319Z...INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY...NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO. THE ADVISORY POSITION...WHICH BLENDS THE MICROWAVE ESTIMATES WITH CONTINUITY DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATING THE CENTER...IS PROBABLY 20 N MI OR SO TOO FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...MOST OF THE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE ONSHORE WITH THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. THIS SHEARING FLOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SO LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE DEPRESSION BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM REMAINS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES WITHIN AND INLAND OF THE WARNING AREA. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD...LEAVING A WEAK REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO LINGER OFFSHORE. THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THIS IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND ONLY VERY SLOWLY BRINGS THE CENTER OF A DECAYING SYSTEM TO THE COAST. THE GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFDL ALL DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM JUST OFFSHORE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0900Z 17.0N 102.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1800Z 17.1N 101.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/0600Z 17.2N 101.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC