ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 PM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. 2346Z TRMM AND 0106Z SSMI OVERPASSES INDICATED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. SINCE THEN...CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...30 KT TAFB...35 KT SAB...ALONG WITH THE POOR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. DUE TO SHEAR AND THE PROXIMITY TO LAND...THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY TO A TROPICAL STORM IS DIMINISHING. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...A CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 035/6. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE SOUTH OF EASTERN MEXICO AND A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. IN 24-36 HOURS... THE STEERING MECHANISMS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD IN A COL AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO MAKE A LOOP OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION INLAND BEFORE THIS LOOP COULD OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH LANDFALL OCCURRING IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. REGARDLESS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM OR NOT... THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 17.2N 102.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 17.7N 101.5W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0000Z 18.0N 101.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC