ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022006 800 AM PDT SAT JUN 03 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY INTERACTING WITH LAND...NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...A SMALL DECREASE IN THE WIND SHEAR COULD BRING THE DEPRESSION TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT IT APPEARS TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST AMSU DATA AND HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/06...AND THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR NORTHEAST BY A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO EARLY SUNDAY. ONE SHOULD NOTE THAT SOME GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING ALONG AND NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS SOLUTION IS ALSO A POSSIBLE ONE. BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THE PRIMARY THREAT IS HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO TO MANZANILLO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 16.0N 102.8W 25 KT 12HR VT 04/0000Z 16.7N 102.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/1200Z 17.5N 101.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 05/0000Z 17.5N 100.5W 20 KT 48HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 99.5W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC