ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT TUE MAY 30 2006 ALTHOUGH ALETTA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION...THERE IS NO APPRECIABLE ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 25 AND 30 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1230Z. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT COULD BE A SHADE HIGH. HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF ALETTA ARE MOVING TOWARD THE CYCLONE AT 30-35 KT...INDICATIVE OF UNFAVORABLE SHEAR...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS SHEAR IS ONLY GOING TO GET STRONGER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BECAUSE ALETTA WILL REMAIN OVER 28-29C WATER...IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE INTERMITTENT CONVECTION. THE STRONG SHEAR AND DRY ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GRADUAL DECAY OF THE CIRCULATION. EVEN WITH THE LATEST QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE CENTER...WHICH MIGHT INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION IS FADING FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/5. ALETTA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO LOWER-LEVEL RIDGE AND BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING ON TO A CENTER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1500Z 16.0N 103.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 15.9N 104.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 15.6N 105.3W 25 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 15.3N 106.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 01/1200Z 15.1N 107.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z 15.0N 109.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 03/1200Z 15.0N 111.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1200Z 15.0N 114.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC