Tropical Storm ALETTA
ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 200 PM PDT MON MAY 29 2006 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ALETTA BRIEFLY APPEARED EARLIER TODAY AS A BANDING FEATURE WAS TRYING TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS AND THE CONVECTION IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE GENEROUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/05. ALETTA HAS MAINTAINED A WESTWARD MOTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CYCLONE AND STEER ALETTA WESTWARD...HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE WITHIN 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE BAMM IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ONLY A SMALL WINDOW EXISTS FOR ALETTA TO SLIGHTLY RE-STRENGTHEN AS THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO DECREASE IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHARPLY IN A DAY OR SO. ON THE OTHER HAND...IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...ALETTA MAY WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SOONER RATHER THAN LATER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FAVORS THE GFDL GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE SHIPS MODEL IS STRONGER BUT APPEARS UNREALISTIC DUE TO THE INCREASING SHEAR. AS A RESULT OF THE IMPINGING DRY AIR AND FORECASTED INCREASED SHEAR IN THE LATER PERIODS...THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 4-5 DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 15.9N 102.1W 35 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 15.9N 102.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 15.8N 103.7W 40 KT 36HR VT 31/0600Z 15.8N 104.7W 35 KT 48HR VT 31/1800Z 15.6N 105.7W 35 KT 72HR VT 01/1800Z 15.5N 107.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 03/1800Z 15.5N 111.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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