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Tropical Storm ALETTA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ALETTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012006
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 28 2006
 
THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALETTA IS OBSCURED AND THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY
RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT LOCATION AND
MOTION ARE THEREFORE SUBJECT TO SOME SPECULATION.  WHAT LOW CLOUD
LINES THAT ARE VISIBLE ARE ELONGATED AND SUGGESTIVE OF A NORTHEAST/
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS...RATHER THAN A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION.  NEVERTHELESS...THERE HAS BEEN AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER THIS AFTERNOON.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS
ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT...ALTHOUGH
THE DATA T NUMBERS SUGGEST THIS ESTIMATE MIGHT BE A LITTLE HIGH.
OUTFLOW REMAINS RESTRICTED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT LESS SO
THAN EARLIER TODAY.
 
THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS DIFFICULT.  THIS MORNING'S MODEL RUNS SHOW
A LITTLE MORE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND THE NOGAPS
NO LONGER BRINGS ALETTA TO THE COASTLINE.  THE GFDL...HOWEVER...
STILL TAKES ALETTA INLAND NEAR ACAPULCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS...AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS OUT OF RESPECT FOR
CONTINUITY AND THE GFDL.  ALL GUIDANCE SAVE THE GFDL TAKES ALETTA
WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTH OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK.
 
THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS ABATING
SOMEWHAT...AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN ACCORD WITH THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT HOWEVER...AND BY 72 HOURS THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT WESTERLY SHEAR MAY AGAIN IMPACT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 15.8N 101.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 16.1N 100.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 16.4N 100.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 16.6N 101.1W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 16.7N 102.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 16.5N 103.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 16.5N 105.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     02/1800Z 16.5N 106.5W    50 KT
 
 
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