ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 800 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURROUNDING SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OS 30 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. AT 12Z...SHIP H9UY LOCATED ABOUT 100 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER REPORTED WESTERLY WINDS OF 21 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1006.0 MB. THE BROAD CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING OR REFORMING SLOWLY NORTH OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 4 KT CLOSER TO THE STRONG CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND ONLY A SLOW DRIFT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...WEAK RIDGING FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND CENTRAL MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY WESTWARD. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MODELS... LIKE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF...MOVE THE STORM INTO MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO IN 48-72 HOURS BEFORE TURNING IT SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...MAINLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MODEL AND A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. THE CURRENT MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 5-10 KT BY 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AND THE CYCLONE COULD EASILY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT FOR A 30- AND 35-KT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 96 HOURS...AND THIS IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY IF THE CENTER REMAINS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS AT THIS TIME... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM PUNTA MALDONADO WESTWARD TO ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 15.1N 101.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 101.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1200Z 16.0N 101.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 29/0000Z 16.4N 100.9W 45 KT 48HR VT 29/1200Z 16.7N 101.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/1200Z 16.8N 101.9W 45 KT 96HR VT 31/1200Z 16.8N 102.5W 45 KT 120HR VT 01/1200Z 16.8N 103.0W 45 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC