ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012006 300 AM PDT SAT MAY 27 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A 25-KNOT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO BE UNDER A STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING VERY LITTLE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THEREFORE... THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MEANDER SOUTH OF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL AND GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER...ANY NORTHWARD DRIFT COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1000Z 14.5N 101.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 14.6N 101.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 15.0N 101.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 15.5N 101.4W 30 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 16.0N 101.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 16.5N 102.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 16.5N 102.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 01/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:39 UTC