| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm ISAAC (Text)

ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20            
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092006               
1500 UTC MON OCT 02 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 80   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)   X(81)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 53   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34 18   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  4   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 490N  510W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 490N  510W 50 57  13(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
 12 490N  510W 64  6   6(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 24 520N  470W 34 33  59(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)   X(92)
 24 520N  470W 50  X  46(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 24 520N  470W 64  X   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     55       0       0       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN