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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  48                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
39.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 405N  381W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 405N  381W 50 97   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 405N  381W 64 21  22(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
 24 425N  342W 34 51  44(95)   2(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 24 425N  342W 50  1  78(79)   5(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 425N  342W 64  X  21(21)  11(32)   1(33)   X(33)   X(33)   X(33)
 
 36 438N  310W 34  1  55(56)  28(84)   5(89)   1(90)   X(90)   X(90)
 36 438N  310W 50  X  12(12)  43(55)   7(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 36 438N  310W 64  X   1( 1)  15(16)   4(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 450N  275W 34  X   6( 6)  36(42)  23(65)   7(72)   1(73)   X(73)
 48 450N  275W 50  X   X( X)  10(10)  21(31)   5(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 48 450N  275W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
 
 72 470N  200W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  31(35)   5(40)   X(40)
 72 470N  200W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   2(14)   X(14)
 72 470N  200W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 96 485N  150W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)  10(24)   X(24)
 96 485N  150W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 96 485N  150W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     70     70      65      55      45      35       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN                                                
                                                                    
                                                                    
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