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Tropical Storm HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  44           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC SAT SEP 23 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
 
...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 382N  448W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 382N  448W 50 82   5(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 382N  448W 64 13   4(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
 24 397N  403W 34 15  77(92)   3(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 24 397N  403W 50  X  63(63)   8(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
 24 397N  403W 64  X  19(19)   8(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
 36 415N  358W 34  X  17(17)  62(79)   7(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 36 415N  358W 50  X   1( 1)  44(45)  10(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
 36 415N  358W 64  X   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
 48 433N  317W 34  X   X( X)  24(24)  39(63)   9(72)   X(72)   X(72)
 48 433N  317W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)  26(29)   7(36)   X(36)   X(36)
 48 433N  317W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)
 
 
 72 468N  239W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  41(43)   7(50)   X(50)
 72 468N  239W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)
 72 468N  239W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   X( 7)
 
 
 96 504N  165W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  21(28)   4(32)
 96 504N  165W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   2(11)
 96 504N  165W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
 
120 550N  100W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  10(18)
120 550N  100W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
120 550N  100W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     60     65      65      60      55      45      40
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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