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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  32                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
0900 UTC WED SEP 20 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
25.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/HR.                                       
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   1(12)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 264N  563W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 264N  563W 50 96   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 12 264N  563W 64 69  11(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
 24 286N  569W 34 56  38(94)   3(97)   1(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
 24 286N  569W 50  7  69(76)   8(84)   1(85)   X(85)   X(85)   X(85)
 24 286N  569W 64  1  43(44)  13(57)   1(58)   X(58)   X(58)   X(58)
 
 36 310N  567W 34  3  40(43)  42(85)   7(92)   1(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 36 310N  567W 50  X  10(10)  46(56)  12(68)   1(69)   X(69)   X(69)
 36 310N  567W 64  X   1( 1)  28(29)   9(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
 
 48 339N  550W 34  X   1( 1)  27(28)  43(71)  12(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 48 339N  550W 50  X   X( X)   5( 5)  35(40)  12(52)   X(52)   X(52)
 48 339N  550W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   7(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 
 
 72 397N  480W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  49(50)  11(61)   X(61)
 72 397N  480W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  22(22)   7(29)   X(29)
 72 397N  480W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   3(14)   X(14)
 
 
 96 450N  380W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  32(34)   8(42)
 96 450N  380W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   4(18)
 96 450N  380W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)
 
 
120 490N  290W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)
120 490N  290W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
120 490N  290W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    100    100      95      90      80      70      60
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART                                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
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