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Hurricane HELENE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  26                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
23.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
HIBERNIA OILFD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   9(15)   3(18)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
BERMUDA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 246N  522W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 12 246N  522W 50 90   5(95)   X(95)   1(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
 12 246N  522W 64 63  15(78)   1(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
 
 24 247N  540W 34 55  37(92)   4(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
 24 247N  540W 50  8  59(67)  12(79)   3(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 247N  540W 64  1  43(44)  12(56)   3(59)   X(59)   X(59)   X(59)
 
 36 248N  565W 34  3  31(34)  45(79)  11(90)   3(93)   X(93)   X(93)
 36 248N  565W 50  X   9( 9)  43(52)  12(64)   4(68)   1(69)   X(69)
 36 248N  565W 64  X   2( 2)  28(30)  12(42)   4(46)   X(46)   X(46)
 
 48 260N  570W 34  2  18(20)  44(64)  17(81)   7(88)   1(89)   X(89)
 48 260N  570W 50  X   2( 2)  28(30)  21(51)  10(61)   1(62)   X(62)
 48 260N  570W 64  X   X( X)  11(11)  17(28)   8(36)   1(37)   X(37)
 
 
 72 295N  585W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)  39(59)  11(70)   2(72)
 72 295N  585W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  26(32)   7(39)   2(41)
 72 295N  585W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)   5(23)   1(24)
 
 
 96 330N  575W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  22(23)  24(47)  10(57)
 96 330N  575W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  13(21)   7(28)
 96 330N  575W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)   3(14)
 
 
120 400N  500W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  24(27)
120 400N  500W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)
120 400N  500W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND    100    105     105     105     100      90      80
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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