ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082006 2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 220N 503W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 12 220N 503W 50 86 6(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) 12 220N 503W 64 60 14(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76) 24 228N 515W 34 72 21(93) 3(96) 1(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) 24 228N 515W 50 17 49(66) 8(74) 3(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) 24 228N 515W 64 5 38(43) 10(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) X(56) 36 231N 530W 34 11 50(61) 20(81) 6(87) 3(90) 1(91) X(91) 36 231N 530W 50 1 23(24) 29(53) 8(61) 3(64) 2(66) X(66) 36 231N 530W 64 X 9( 9) 23(32) 8(40) 2(42) 1(43) X(43) 48 235N 550W 34 2 10(12) 33(45) 23(68) 10(78) 2(80) X(80) 48 235N 550W 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 20(38) 9(47) 3(50) X(50) 48 235N 550W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 6(28) 2(30) X(30) 72 245N 575W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 21(30) 26(56) 9(65) 2(67) 72 245N 575W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 18(28) 6(34) 2(36) 72 245N 575W 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 4(18) 1(19) 96 271N 595W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 20(44) 7(51) 96 271N 595W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 11(18) 4(22) 96 271N 595W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 120 305N 610W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 12(31) 120 305N 610W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 120 305N 610W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 95 100 100 95 90 85 80 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 20:35:02 UTC