Tropical Storm HELENE

ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006               
2100 UTC THU SEP 14 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 148N  397W 34 78   9(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 148N  397W 50  8   7(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 148N  397W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 160N  421W 34  5  64(69)  10(79)   1(80)   1(81)   X(81)   X(81)
 24 160N  421W 50  X  22(22)  11(33)   X(33)   1(34)   X(34)   X(34)
 24 160N  421W 64  X   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
 36 173N  444W 34  X  15(15)  46(61)  11(72)   4(76)   1(77)   X(77)
 36 173N  444W 50  X   1( 1)  26(27)   9(36)   3(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 36 173N  444W 64  X   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   3(16)   X(16)   X(16)
 
 48 185N  462W 34  X   2( 2)  28(30)  26(56)  13(69)   1(70)   1(71)
 48 185N  462W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)  19(26)   9(35)   2(37)   X(37)
 48 185N  462W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   5(16)   1(17)   1(18)
 
 
 72 205N  490W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  31(48)  10(58)   2(60)
 72 205N  490W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   6(28)   2(30)
 72 205N  490W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   4(15)   1(16)
 
 
 96 225N  510W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)  17(42)   8(50)
 96 225N  510W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   4(23)
 96 225N  510W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)
 
 
120 255N  540W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  13(17)  14(31)
120 255N  540W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   8(13)
120 255N  540W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      65      75      85      90      90
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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