Tropical Storm HELENE

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TROPICAL STORM HELENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082006
1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2006
 
GOES AND METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS MORE TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM. THE
CONVECTION IS MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH WITH NUMEROUS
RAINBANDS ALL AROUND. THE OUTFLOW IS PRIMARILY DEFINED TO THE SOUTH
AND TO THE WEST.  IN FACT...T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED AND SUPPORT
INTENSITIES OF AT LEAST 50 KNOTS. I AM ONLY GOING TO MENTION THE
WELL-KNOWN PARAMETERS THAT FAVOR INTENSIFICATION...LOW SHEAR AND
WARM OCEAN...AND THESE TWO ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND HELENE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY.
 
HELENE APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE BIT AND IS NOW MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. HELENE IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A RIDGE...BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD A LARGE TROUGH OR WEAKNESS WHICH IS FORECAST TO COVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THERE IS NOT MUCH MORE TO ADD TO THE TRACK
FORECAST EXCEPT THAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE SINCE MOST OF THE
RELIABLE GUIDANCE... GFDL/GFS/UK/ECMWF MODELS AND SO FORTH...
UNANIMOUSLY TURN THE CYCLONE NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OVER OPEN
WATER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 15.8N  41.4W    50 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 16.6N  43.1W    60 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 17.8N  45.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 18.7N  46.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N  48.0W    75 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  50.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 23.5N  53.0W    85 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 26.0N  55.0W    85 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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