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Hurricane GORDON (Text)


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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 18 2006
 
GORDON IS STUBBORNLY MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY WITH A WELL-DEFINED
EYE AND A NEARLY COMPLETE COLD CLOUD RING.  SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED AND THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY IS LIKEWISE KEPT AT 80 KT.  GORDON IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING
OVER COOLER WATERS AND WILL BE OVER 24 C SSTS TOMORROW...THOUGH THE
DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF COOLING UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES
MAY SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE REDUCTION IN SSTS.  VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR...ANALYZED BY CIMSS AT ABOUT 20 KT...SHOULD BECOME STRONGER
UNDER AN INCREASINGLY BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT.  AS SUGGESTED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...GORDON SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING SHORTLY.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHILE THE SYSTEM IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IS A
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
GORDON IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...75 DEGREES AT 19 KT...WHICH
IS FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GORDON SHOULD
TRACK TO THE EAST FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNDER THE ZONAL FLOW
PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SOUTH.  IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...GORDON IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT QUICKLY
ACCELERATES AND IS ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. 
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE NOGAPS AND
UKMET...SUGGEST INSTEAD THAT GORDON WILL RETAIN ITS OWN IDENTITY AS
AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM LONGER THAN INDICATED HERE.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...MINUS THE NOGAPS...WHICH
APPEARS TO HAVE TOO LARGE A VORTEX CARRIED FORWARD IN TIME.
 
ANALYSES FROM THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS SUGGEST THAT ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS TRANSITION GORDON TO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  DUE TO THE RATHER RESILIENT NATURE OF
GORDON...HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION MAY BE DELAYED SLIGHTLY. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM WOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED
FOR THE AZORES.  HOWEVER...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE
CYCLONE...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE EXPERIENCED IN THE AZORES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/2100Z 37.8N  44.8W    80 KT
 12HR VT     19/0600Z 38.3N  40.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     19/1800Z 38.5N  34.2W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     20/0600Z 39.2N  26.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     20/1800Z 41.3N  17.9W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
 
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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Sep-2006 20:45:01 UTC