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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2006
 
MICROWAVE AND CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW A
FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED EYE...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF COLD TOPS.  DATA-T
NUMBERS FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED...AND
SUPPORT AN INTENSITY SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 70 KT.  HOWEVER...WE
WOULD LIKE TO SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE FOR A LITTLE LONGER BEFORE
ADJUSTING THE INTENSITY UPWARD.  GORDON IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW SHEAR AND SSTS AROUND 26C...WHICH SHOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

GORDON CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS 045/17.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
ACCELERATION AS GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND TO THE GFS AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS.  GORDON IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ATLANTIC IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE QUESTION REMAINS AS TO
EXACTLY WHEN GORDON WILL TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. 
FSU PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS FROM THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS SUGGEST THAT
GORDON SHOULD COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 36
HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOW SUIT.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ALSO INDICATES THAT GORDON WILL BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 3 DAYS.  

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS VERY NEAR OR OVER THE
AZORES IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT
GORDON WILL HAVE COMPLETED ITS TRANSITION INTO A POWERFUL
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY THAT TIME.  HOWEVER...IF FUTURE FORECASTS
DELAY THIS TRANSITION...TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD
BE REQUIRED.  IN ANY EVENT...STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER THE
AZORES.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 36.5N  49.6W    70 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 37.8N  46.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 38.7N  40.7W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 38.9N  33.8W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 39.0N  26.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/FRANKLIN
 
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