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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006

AN EYE IS STILL EVIDENT ON INFRARED IMAGES AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT FROM THE VARIOUS
AGENCIES.  GORDON CONTINUES TO MOVE UNDER AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE...AND ASSOCIATED MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH SSTS AROUND 26
DEG C.  THIS REGIME SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MORE OR
LESS MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO.  THEREAFTER SOME
WEAKENING COULD OCCUR DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND INCREASED SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  HOWEVER AS GORDON
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN LARGE AND INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER THE EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC...THE COMBINATION OF GORDON AND THE
LARGER CYCLONE SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENT EXTRATROPICAL STORM.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE LARGER CYCLONE WILL
DOMINATE...AND THEREFORE ABSORB...THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF
GORDON.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST ALTHOUGH A
LITTLE STRONGER IN VIEW OF THE EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE ABSORBING
SYSTEM.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY...AS SUGGESTED BY THE NOGAPS
MODEL...THAT GORDON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LONGER THAN EXPECTED HERE.  THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR THE AZORES AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
STORM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS..

THE HEADING HAS TURNED MORE TO THE RIGHT AND IS NOW AROUND 040...AT
12 KT.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON ACCELERATION AS
GORDON GETS CAUGHT UP IN INCREASING ZONAL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFDL...U.K. MET...AND GFS CONSENSUS.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY USING A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0300Z 35.4N  51.5W    70 KT
 12HR VT     18/1200Z 36.9N  49.1W    65 KT
 24HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  44.0W    65 KT
 36HR VT     19/1200Z 38.4N  37.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     20/0000Z 38.5N  29.5W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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