Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2006
 
GORDON HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 010/05. A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OFFSHORE OF NORTH CAROLINA WILL
GIVE GORDON A KICK TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY...PUSHING THE
CYCLONE TO THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THEREAFTER...A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER ACCELERATION IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND IS
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN...AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. 

CONVECTION HAS MADE A COMEBACK ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF GORDON'S
RAGGED EYE...WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF -70 TO -80C SEEN IN
POST-ECLIPSE GOES-12 IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CI NUMBERS OF 4.0
FROM SAB AND TAFB...COMBINED WITH THE IMPROVED SATELLITE APPEARANCE
JUSTIFY MAINTAINING AN INTENSITY OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE
INTENSITY KEEPS GORDON AS A HURRICANE AT 12 HOURS GIVEN THE RECENT
IMPROVED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE...AND INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING
THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NOGAPS...SUGGEST THAT
GORDON WILL BECOME EXTRATROPICAL SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE
GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND GFDL MODELS SHOW GORDON
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM DURING DAY 3. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS GORDON PASSING CLOSE TO THE AZORES AS A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT 72 HOURS AND INDICATES MERGER WITH THE
FRONT BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR A LITTLE SOONER. 

THE WIND RADII FORECAST REFLECTS THE EXPANSION OF THE 34-KT WINDS
LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE DUE TO THE MORE
EASTERLY MOTION OF THE CYCLONE AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
GORDON AND THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0900Z 32.6N  53.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/1800Z 33.8N  52.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     18/0600Z 35.9N  49.8W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/1800Z 37.8N  45.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     19/0600Z 38.7N  39.6W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/0600Z 40.0N  24.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0600Z...MERGED WITH FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/KNABB
 
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