Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A RAGGED EYE FEATURE IN INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH A 16/2351Z SSMI OVERPASS INDICATED THE
NORTHERN EYEWALL WAS BEGINNING TO ERODE. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM THE 3 AGENCIES SUGEGST THAT GORDON IS A BORDERLINE
65-KT HURRICANE...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DRY AIR BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD
HELP TO CONTINUE THE SLOW WEAKENING PROCESS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST IS
FORECAST TO CAPTURE GORDON AND TURN THE CYCLONE INTO A SIGNIFICANT
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE AZORES ISLANDS.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 360/03. NORTHWARD RIDGING TO THE EAST OF
GORDON NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS SHOULD NUDGE THE CYCLONE
SLOWLY NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...
AFTER WHICH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TURN
GORDON NORTHEASTWARD BY 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN ACCELERATE THE
CYCLONE RAPIDLY EASTWARD AFTER THAT. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WHICH BRINGS
GORDON VERY CLOSE TO THE AZORES ISLANDS AS A 50-KT EXTRATROPICAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GORDON COULD MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM BEFORE IT REACHES THE AZORES ISLANDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      17/0300Z 32.0N  53.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/1200Z 33.3N  53.2W    60 KT
 24HR VT     18/0000Z 35.3N  51.2W    60 KT
 36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.4N  47.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     19/0000Z 38.9N  41.7W    55 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     20/0000Z 40.0N  27.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     21/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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