Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2006
 
GORDON HAS MAINTAINED A RAGGED EYE FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 65 KT AS DOES THE
INITIAL INTENSITY.  BOTH THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE HAVE BACKED OFF ON WEAKENING GORDON IN THE FIRST 24 TO 36
HOURS.  THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION...THE
CYCLONE REMAINING OVER WARM WATERS LONGER...AND LOWER SHEAR THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS A STEADY
INTENSITY OF 65 KT UNTIL GORDON REACHES WATERS BELOW 26C DEGREES
AND INCREASING SHEAR.  AT THAT TIME...SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR
UNTIL THE CYCLONE IS ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN 4 DAYS.
 
IT APPEARS THAT GORDON'S FORWARD MOTION HAS FINALLY RESUMED AND IS
ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 340/3.  A GENERAL SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN AND
ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS A RESULT OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-
LAYER TROUGH FROM THE WEST.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PRIMARILY DUE TO THE
INITIAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS...UKMET...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.  EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODEL
TRACKERS MAINTAIN GORDON THROUGH 120 HOURS...ANALYSIS OF THE MODEL
FIELDS INDICATE AN OVERALL CONSENSUS IN THE CYCLONE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 DAYS AND ABSORBED BY A FRONT IN FOUR. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/2100Z 31.7N  54.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     17/0600Z 32.6N  53.6W    65 KT
 24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.3N  52.3W    65 KT
 36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.6N  49.6W    60 KT
 48HR VT     18/1800Z 38.6N  44.6W    55 KT
 72HR VT     19/1800Z 39.5N  32.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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