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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 14 2006
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/08 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING. GORDON HAS SLOWED DOWN
SLIGHTLY AS ADVERTISED BY THE MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
MODELS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS UNTIL A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GRADUALLY PICKS UP THE CYCLONE AND ACCELERATES IT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND EVENTUALLY TO THE EAST AS A SIGNIFICANT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
AT DAYS 4 AND 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF AND
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN
A LITTLE FASTER AFTER THAT WHICH IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NHC
MODEL CONSENSUS.  

ALTHOUGH CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY...GORDON STILL HAS A
CLASSIC WELL-DEFINED EYE IN MICROWAVE AND INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 100 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KT. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST BASICALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ONLY SLOW
WEAKENING EXPECTED AS GORDON MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER WATERS FOR
THE NEXT 72 HOURS BEFORE ENCOUNTERING SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WATER
AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...BY DAYS 4 AND 5...GORDON WILL BE GETTING A
SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
WHICH SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE CYCLONE AS A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE...POSSIBLY EVEN A STORM SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 30.6N  54.3W   100 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 31.4N  53.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 32.1N  52.7W    80 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.9N  51.9W    70 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 34.0N  50.8W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 37.5N  46.0W    50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 41.5N  35.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     20/0000Z 43.0N  21.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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