Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
 
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED AN IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN WITH A VERY
DISTINCT EYE. SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS AROUND 0000 UTC WERE ABOUT 5.5
WHILE THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE...ADT...FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF
WISCONSIN IS CURRENTLY GIVING 3-HOUR ESTIMATES OF 6.0.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 105
KNOTS...WHICH IS A VALUE IN BETWEEN THESE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES. THIS MAKES GORDON A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS BUT THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN AS THE
SHEAR INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GORDON SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT
11 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. HOWEVER...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD WEAKEN IN A DAY OR
SO CAUSING GORDON TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY. BY DAY FOUR...AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL KICK GORDON OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK
ENVELOPE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/0300Z 27.8N  57.1W   105 KT
 12HR VT     14/1200Z 29.3N  56.3W   105 KT
 24HR VT     15/0000Z 31.0N  55.0W   100 KT
 36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.7N  54.3W    90 KT
 48HR VT     16/0000Z 32.5N  53.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  52.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     18/0000Z 37.0N  48.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  40.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER AVILA
 
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