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Hurricane GORDON (Text)

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072006
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2006
 
GORDON HAS DEVELOPED A RATHER WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE LAST FEW
HOURS WITH IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 
DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 77
KT...AND THE ORGANIZATION OF THE HURRICANE HAS CONTINUED TO
INCREASE SINCE THE 1145 UTC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.  

GORDON HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...HOWEVER BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE ONLY TAKE GORDON
TO AROUND 85 KT WHICH COULD ACTUALLY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES GORDON CONSERVATIVELY
TO 90 KT IN 12 HOURS...BUT GORDON HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME THIS
SEASON'S FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE ON THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND.
WITH THAT SAID...THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD THIS AFTERNOON.  IN DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...GORDON IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A RESULT OF COOLER SSTS AND A LESS CONDUCIVE
LOWER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 010/8.  GORDON IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED TO THE NORTH BETWEEN THE WESTERN EXTENT OF A LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
FLORENCE TO THE WEST.  A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED TO THE
NORTHEAST OF GORDON WHICH IS MOST LIKELY THE CAUSE FOR THE
SOMEWHAT SLOW INITIAL MOTION.  THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS WELL
CLUSTERED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST...HOWEVER THE SPEED IS A BIT
UNCERTAIN.  THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS
RUN...AND TAKE GORDON NORTHEASTWARD EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES BY DAYS 4 AND 5.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND ALONG
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      13/1500Z 26.0N  57.9W    80 KT
 12HR VT     14/0000Z 27.4N  57.4W    90 KT
 24HR VT     14/1200Z 29.2N  56.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     15/0000Z 30.8N  55.5W    85 KT
 48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.1N  54.5W    80 KT
 72HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  52.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  50.0W    60 KT
120HR VT     18/1200Z 40.0N  44.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/BEVEN
 
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