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Tropical Storm FLORENCE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11         
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006               
0900 UTC WED SEP 06 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS LOCATED NEAR     
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   7(17)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   2( 5)
 
BARBUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)
 
ANTIGUA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 192N  516W 34 86   4(90)   1(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)   X(91)
 12 192N  516W 50 10   9(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 12 192N  516W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 203N  534W 34 17  59(76)   7(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)   X(83)
 24 203N  534W 50  X  25(25)   9(34)   1(35)   X(35)   X(35)   X(35)
 24 203N  534W 64  X   6( 6)   3( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
 36 214N  555W 34  1  23(24)  38(62)   9(71)   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)
 36 214N  555W 50  X   3( 3)  23(26)   8(34)   1(35)   1(36)   X(36)
 36 214N  555W 64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 48 224N  578W 34  X   2( 2)  24(26)  26(52)  13(65)   1(66)   X(66)
 48 224N  578W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)  18(22)   8(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 48 224N  578W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
 
 72 244N  626W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  36(42)  11(53)   3(56)
 72 244N  626W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  17(18)   6(24)   2(26)
 72 244N  626W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   5(13)   1(14)
 
 
 96 270N  665W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)  25(37)   9(46)
 96 270N  665W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  12(15)   5(20)
 96 270N  665W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   4(10)
 
 
120 295N  680W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  19(22)  13(35)
120 295N  680W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)   7(16)
120 295N  680W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     55      60      65      75      85      95
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN