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Hurricane FLORENCE


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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006
 
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST FINISHED ONE COMPLETE PATTERN IN
FLORENCE...AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 73 KT IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THIS IS DOWN FROM THE 86 KT FOUND ON THE
PREVIOUS MISSION.  THE CREW ALSO REPORTED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD
ERODED...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH IMAGES FROM THE BERMUDA RADAR. 
ALTHOUGH THE PRESSURE IS HOLDING STEADY...IT APPEARS THAT THE WIND
FIELD HAS EXPANDED SOMEWHAT...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...THE BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL
BE NO MAJOR CHANGES IN INTENSITY BEFORE FLORENCE MOVES AWAY FROM
BERMUDA.  AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL
INCREASE SHARPLY AND FLORENCE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS.  HOWEVER...BAROCLINIC INTERACTION WITH A SHORT WAVE IN THE
WESTERLIES IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE NEW ENERGY TO FLORENCE AS IT
BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AFTER 48 HOURS...WHICH WILL SLOW THE
WEAKENING PROCESS AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD. 

FLORENCE HAS BEGUN ITS RECURVATURE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
010/10.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF FLORENCE WILL PASS WELL TO THE WEST
OF BERMUDA...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS EAST OF THE CENTER WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLAND.  THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
WEST TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN.  THE GFS CONTROL RUN IS AN OUTLIER WITH A
FASTER EASTWARD MOTION...BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE.    
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0900Z 31.8N  66.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/1800Z 33.6N  65.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/0600Z 36.0N  64.5W    70 KT
 36HR VT     12/1800Z 38.5N  62.5W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/0600Z 41.5N  60.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     14/0600Z 46.5N  50.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     15/0600Z 50.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     16/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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