ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006 1100 AM EDT FRI SEP 08 2006 THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS SHAPELESS WITH VERY ASYMMETRIC CONVECTION...AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS REMAIN UNCHANGED AT 35 KNOTS. I WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER THE INTENSITY BUT I WILL HOLD IT AT 45 KNOTS FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY AND BASED ON SEVERAL..BUT LESS RELIABLE HI-RES QUIKSCAT WIND VECTORS ON THE EDGE OF THE SWATH. FLORENCE HAS REFUSED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IN THE TROPICS...LIKE MOST THE SYSTEMS SO FAR THIS YEAR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO DO SO AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS...AND BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BECOME AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR FLORENCE SEEMS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT THERE MUST BE ONE GIVEN THE LARGE AND WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION OF THE STORM. THE AVERAGE MOTION OF THE LARGE GYRE IS ESTIMATED AT 300/15. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING CURRENTS AND FLORENCE CONTINUES MOVING AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IT SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...IT SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH. THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...ALL MODELS SHOW THE NORTHEASTWARD TURN BUT THEY VARY ON THE FORWARD SPEED. DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE WILL LIKELY ISSUE WATCHES OR WARNINGS LATER TODAY. NOTE: LAST TWO VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES PRIOR TO SENDING THIS ADVISORY SUGGESTS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE TUCKED INTO THE CONVECTION. IF THIS TREND TOWARD ORGANIZATION CONTINUES...SCIENCE WILL HAVE PREVAILED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 23.0N 59.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 23.8N 60.9W 50 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 25.5N 63.2W 55 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 27.0N 64.5W 65 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 28.5N 65.0W 75 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 33.0N 64.0W 85 KT 96HR VT 12/1200Z 39.0N 60.0W 75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 13/1200Z 48.0N 49.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:37 UTC