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Tropical Storm FLORENCE (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2006
 
WHILE THE OVERALL CIRCULATION OF FLORENCE IS VERY LARGE...FINDING
THE EXACT CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS FROM
THE 2105 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER REMAINS
BROAD AND ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  THE CENTER THAT WE
HAVE BEEN TRACKING APPEARS TO BE LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN 
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS VERY
STRONG...THERE ARE NO DISCERNIBLE BANDING FEATURES.  DUE TO THE
CENTER LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES...THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGE FROM 30 KT FROM TAFB...35 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM AFWA. 
THEREFORE....THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10.  THE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE 
TO AGREE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE WHICH EXPANDS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE WILL BE
APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH AND BEGIN
TURNING NORTHWESTWARD.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE
EASTWARD...CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE
AT 96 AND 120 HOURS.

FLORENCE HAS BEEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTHWEST. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO 
CUT-OFF AND MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD...MUCH LIKE THE EVOLUTION
PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS.  AS THIS OCCURS...THE SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW STRENGTHENING 
AND INDICATES THAT FLORENCE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN ABOUT 2
DAYS.  THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE.

THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
USING GUIDANCE FROM THE GLOBAL MODEL PREDICTIONS...WHICH DEPICT A
RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION.  THESE MODELS HAVE SHOWN SOME SKILL IN
FORECASTING THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OUTER WIND FIELDS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 17.7N  49.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 18.3N  51.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 19.3N  53.0W    55 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 20.3N  55.2W    60 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 21.3N  57.6W    65 KT
 72HR VT     09/0000Z 23.5N  62.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     10/0000Z 25.5N  66.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     11/0000Z 28.5N  69.0W    95 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
 
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