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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2006
 
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED.
IN FACT... IT LOOKS LESS ORGANIZED THAN 6 HOURS AGO AND HAS A
SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED APPEARANCE.  THE CENTER... AS BEST WE CAN
TELL... IS BETWEEN TWO BANDING FEATURES THAT ARE LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LINEAR.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED FROM
EARLIER AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD REASON
TO UPGRADE THE SYSTEM AS DISORGANIZED AS IT LOOKS NOW.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS LEFT AT 30 KT.
 
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING STRENGTHENING AT
THIS TIME.  GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FORECAST THE SHEAR TO
DIMINISH... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS... AFTER WHICH MORE
SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BEGIN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
LOWERED IN THE NEAR-TERM TO REFLECT THE DISORGANIZED INITIAL
STATE... BUT IS KEPT ALMOST THE SAME IN THE LATER TERM OUT OF
RESPECT FOR THE GLOBAL MODELS... WHICH ALMOST UNANIMOUSLY HAVE THE
SYSTEM IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FROM DAYS 3-5.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO BE ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 305/10.
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
DEPRESSION WITH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD IN A COUPLE
DAYS...AFTER A LARGE TROUGH DEPARTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
HOWEVER...THE BIG DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS IS THE SYSTEM'S
SPEED. NOGAPS SHOOTS THE DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AN
UNBELIEVABLY FAST RATE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE FASTER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET... AFTER BEING ONE OF THE
SLOWEST MODELS... HAS MADE A LARGE WESTWARD SHIFT AND IS NOW
SIMILAR TO THE GFS POSITION. WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE FORECAST...
WE'VE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF BEING A LITTLE FASTER THAN A MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT EXCLUDES THE NOGAPS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 16.9N  43.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 17.6N  45.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 18.3N  46.5W    35 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N  48.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 19.5N  50.0W    45 KT
 72HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     08/1800Z 21.5N  58.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     09/1800Z 23.0N  62.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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