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Tropical Depression SIX (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES HAS A BROAD CLOSED CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION TO GARNER DVORAK CLASSIFICATION OF T2.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  CONSEQUENTLY...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  BUOY 41026 REPORTED 32 KT WINDS LATE THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE SINCE DECREASED...AND THIS IS THE
BASIS FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS DIFFICULT TO SEE...AND THERE MAY BE
MULTIPLE SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND A COMMON CENTER.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS THEREFORE UNCERTAIN BUT ESTIMATED TO BE 305/12.  A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS
WEAKNESS SHOULD ALLOW THE PRESENT MOTION TO CONTINUE...WITH SOME
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER
THAT...GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEND THE TRACK BACK TO THE LEFT TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH GREAT DIFFERENCES IN
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE FASTER
MOTION OF THE GFDL AND BAM MODELS...WITH THE UKMET AND ECMWF BEING
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER.  WITH CONVECTION OVER A BROAD AREA AND THE
PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE SWIRLS...IT IS NOT CLEAR EXACTLY WHERE THE
CENTER WILL CONSOLIDATE.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THE CENTER COULD
CONSOLIDATE TO THE NORTH OF THE CURRENT TRACK AND BE MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH.

THERE IS SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE...AND THIS COULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  AFTER THE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE
BRING THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS A BLEND OF THE NUMBERS FROM THESE TWO MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 14.6N  40.4W    30 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 15.6N  41.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 16.8N  43.6W    40 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 17.7N  45.0W    45 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 18.5N  46.7W    50 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 20.0N  50.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 21.5N  54.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 23.0N  59.0W    75 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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