ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006 0900 UTC MON AUG 28 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 6(15) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) 11(25) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) 8(24) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16) 3(19) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) 7(28) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 12(26) 5(31) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 10(29) 4(33) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 11(41) 3(44) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 29(41) 8(49) 2(51) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 3(20) 1(21) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 26(45) 6(51) 2(53) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) 1(22) 1(23) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) 1(11) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 28(49) 4(53) 2(55) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) 2(24) 1(25) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 2(11) X(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 25(31) 23(54) 4(58) 1(59) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 2(26) 1(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 18(58) 2(60) 1(61) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) 2(27) X(27) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) MIAMI FL 34 X 2( 2) 22(24) 26(50) 13(63) 1(64) 1(65) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) 7(28) 1(29) 1(30) MIAMI FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13) MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 29(31) 22(53) 8(61) 1(62) X(62) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) KEY WEST FL 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 19(44) 8(52) 2(54) X(54) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) 5(23) 1(24) X(24) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) 15(55) 3(58) X(58) MARCO ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 10(27) 2(29) X(29) MARCO ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 16(50) 4(54) 1(55) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 12(24) 1(25) X(25) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) 1(11) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) 20(44) 4(48) 1(49) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 1(20) 1(21) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 25(42) 5(47) 1(48) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 22(30) 7(37) 2(39) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 3(16) 1(17) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) 1(23) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 6(23) 2(25) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 6(19) 2(21) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20) 2(22) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 6(16) 1(17) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 2(14) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 19(33) 12(45) 1(46) X(46) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 7(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ANDROS 34 X 17(17) 21(38) 3(41) 2(43) X(43) 1(44) ANDROS 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ANDROS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 11(12) 6(18) 1(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 11(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) HAVANA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CIENFUEGOS 34 X 3( 3) 19(22) 11(33) X(33) 1(34) X(34) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 2 34(36) 8(44) 2(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) CAMAGUEY 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 90 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 208N 763W 34 47 21(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 1(70) X(70) 12 208N 763W 50 9 4(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 12 208N 763W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 222N 782W 34 1 38(39) 17(56) 5(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) 24 222N 782W 50 X 11(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 24 222N 782W 64 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 36 237N 800W 34 X 8( 8) 39(47) 15(62) 4(66) 1(67) X(67) 36 237N 800W 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 8(30) 2(32) X(32) X(32) 36 237N 800W 64 X X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) 48 255N 806W 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 27(53) 11(64) 1(65) X(65) 48 255N 806W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 6(29) 1(30) 1(31) 48 255N 806W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 72 296N 810W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 29(39) 8(47) 3(50) 72 296N 810W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 4(19) 1(20) 72 296N 810W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 96 325N 795W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 12(29) 5(34) 96 325N 795W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 96 325N 795W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 120 365N 745W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 120 365N 745W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 120 365N 745W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45 55 65 75 65 70 75 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC