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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC THU AUG 24 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
BLUEFIELDS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)
PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
PT GALLINAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CURACAO 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 9(16)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 2(15)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 8(25)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 12(28) 3(31)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 9(32) 2(34)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 15(23) 3(26) 1(27)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 8(16) 1(17) 1(18)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 7(22) X(22) 1(23)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 132N 655W 34 19 12(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
12 132N 655W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 132N 655W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 138N 680W 34 1 30(31) 11(42) 1(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
24 138N 680W 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
24 138N 680W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 146N 702W 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 8(42) 3(45) X(45) X(45)
36 146N 702W 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
36 146N 702W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
48 155N 725W 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 9(38) 2(40) X(40)
48 155N 725W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) X(12) 1(13)
48 155N 725W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
72 170N 765W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 21(25) 8(33) 2(35)
72 170N 765W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
72 170N 765W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
96 185N 805W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) 5(27)
96 185N 805W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
96 185N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
120 205N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 10(17)
120 205N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
120 205N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35 40 45 50 55 60 60
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:36 UTC