Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

...CENTER OF ERNESTO NEARING THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FROM
VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...FROM BONITA BEACH
SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF VERO BEACH TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS
MORNING FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.3 WEST OR NEAR THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
CANAGUA. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 275 MILES...445 KM...SOUTHEAST
OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 265 MILES ...425 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI FLORIDA.
 
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. 
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WATER
LATER THIS MORNING...AND BE NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER ERNESTO MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
HAITI.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN CUBA.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER
CENTRAL CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAHAMAS.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
 
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...22.2 N...78.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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