Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.  A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND  MUD SLIDES.  RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.
 
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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