Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...INCLUDING
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST
NORTH OF NEW SMYRNA BEACH FLORIDA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
U.S. EAST COAST NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH
CAROLINA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  80.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N  80.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.9N  79.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.6N  80.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.5N  81.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.9N  80.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 32.5N  79.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N  78.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 40.5N  78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 43.0N  78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N  80.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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