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Tropical Storm ERNESTO (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
0900 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE NOW IN EFFECT FROM
NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...FROM BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...AND
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND...THE BERRY ISLANDS... THE BIMINIS AND GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND
GREAT EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES
OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...
AND CAMAGUEY. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
FOR THE EASTERNMOST PROVINCES OF CUBA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  78.9W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N  78.9W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N  78.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.8N  79.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.4N  80.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.3N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  30SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 29.7N  80.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N  79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  25SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N  79.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 42.0N  80.0W...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N  78.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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