Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
THE RADAR PRESENTATION OF ERNESTO HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO.  THE CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS NOW
TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE EAST AND NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATED 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 55 KT.  A
DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER
FOUND MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 150 METERS OF 51 KT WHICH EQUATES TO
A SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 43 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 
SET AT 45 KT.

ERNESTO HAS ABOUT 18 HOURS OVER WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALL FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AND THIS IS
FOLLOWED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED...THAT
ERNESTO COULD BECOME A LITTLE STRONGER THAN INDICATED IN THE
FORECAST AFTER 12 HOURS AND PRIOR TO IT REACHING THE COAST...BUT
REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY APPEARS UNLIKELY.  AFTER LANDFALL IN
THE CAROLINAS...ERNESTO IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AND BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 36-48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 010/13.  THE TRACK REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  AS ERNESTO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IT IS EXPECTED
TO TURN SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A
CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
  
THE 12 FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 41010.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 30.0N  80.2W    45 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 32.1N  79.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 34.6N  78.6W    40 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 37.0N  78.2W    25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 39.3N  78.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 44.5N  80.0W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
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