Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
500 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED ON HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES AND
SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM CUBA SHOW LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A
CENTER.  BUT BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FLYING ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...THE CENTER
IS JUST INLAND OF THE NORTH COAST.  THE SYSTEM BECAME QUITE
DISORGANIZED... WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION LEFT BEHIND NEAR
THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA.  SOME OF THIS DISORGANIZATION MAY BE DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A SMALL UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
OF ERNESTO.  RECENTLY...HOWEVER...SOME NEW CELLS OF DEEP CONVECTION
ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.  WE EXPECT SOME
RE-STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR AFTER ERNESTO MOVES OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.  HOWEVER SINCE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN
DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONE'S PASSAGE OVER LAND...IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT THIS STRENGTHENING WILL BE RAPID.  IN FACT...THE
SHIPS-BASED RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A LESS THAN 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES
WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AND KEEPS THE SYSTEM JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE THE
FORECAST LANDFALL IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
BEING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AT THIS TIME.  HOWEVER...SINCE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR ERNESTO
TO REACH HURRICANE STATUS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...THE HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE WARNED AREAS IN FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE MOTION...310/11...IS UNCERTAIN BUT APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE FASTER
AND SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  A MID-LEVEL
HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  SOME OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUCH AS THE GFS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD WHILE OTHERS HAVE
CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS RUN.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
FOR THIS PACKAGE IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BUT OTHERWISE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND VERY CLOSE
TO THE GFDL PREDICTION.  IN 3-5 DAYS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED WESTWARD IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/2100Z 21.3N  76.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     29/0600Z 22.5N  78.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     29/1800Z 24.3N  79.7W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/0600Z 26.1N  80.5W    60 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     30/1800Z 27.8N  80.8W    50 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/1800Z 32.5N  80.0W    70 KT
 96HR VT     01/1800Z 36.0N  78.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     02/1800Z 40.0N  78.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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