Tropical Storm ERNESTO

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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL052006
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
 
THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION ENDED AROUND 00Z...AND THE HIGHEST WINDS
THE AIRCRAFT COULD FIND WERE 41 KT.  THEY WERE UNABLE TO GET
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO LAND...SO IT IS POSSIBLE THEY DID
NOT SAMPLE THE STRONGEST WINDS.  NEVERTHELESS...THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT IS PROBABLY HIGH.  IN GENERAL...THE
SATELLITE DEPICTION OF ERNESTO IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS EARLIER
IN THE DAY...WITH LITTLE BANDING AND CLOUD TOPS THAT HAVE WARMED
SOMEWHAT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/6.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING OR THE FORECAST TRACK.  ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS
AGGRESSIVELY SHIFT THE MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
ALLOW ERNESTO TO MOVE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA. 
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...WITH THE
NOGAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND THE GFDL SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND BOTH
TOWARD THE FLORIDA KEYS.  THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NEAR THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST...AND THE
UKMET IS ON THE LEFT...JUST WEST OF THE KEYS.  THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS NOT MOVED MUCH AND NEITHER HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  

THERE COULD BE SOME SHIFTS WHEN THE 00Z MODELS COME OUT...AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE BENEFIT OF DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AND
AN AIR FORCE C-130.  A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS GREATLY COMPLICATED BY LAND INTERACTIONS
WITH CUBA.  SHOULD ERNESTO NOT REGAIN MUCH ORGANIZATION BEFORE
REACHING CUBA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT NOT A LOT WILL BE LEFT OF THE
CYCLONE WHEN IT EMERGES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  HOWEVER...THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME A VIGOROUS RESTRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND A SUBSTANTIAL CYCLONE SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER CUBA. 
IN THIS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL GUIDANCE...BUT
WELL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 18.6N  74.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 19.6N  75.7W    60 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N  77.6W    55 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 22.8N  79.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 24.0N  81.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 27.0N  82.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/0000Z 31.0N  81.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/0000Z 35.0N  77.0W    50 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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