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Tropical Depression DEBBY (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

THERE ARE JUST A FEW PUFFS OF CONVECTION FAR NORTH OF THE CENTER IN
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF DEBBY.  THIS SYSTEM BARELY FITS THE
DEFINITION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE SO ADVISORIES WILL BE CONTINUED
SIX MORE HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND SO
IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KT.  THIS SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE AT
ANY TIME WITH THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR.  LITTLE
CHANGE IN INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.   

THE CURRENT MOTION OF 320/11 SHOULD CHANGE TO DUE NORTH SOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.  THIS FRONT SHOULD ABSORB
DEBBY IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED
LEFTWARD AT FIRST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE NORTHWESTWARD INITIAL MOTION
THEN COMES IN LINE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 28.6N  49.3W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 30.5N  49.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 33.5N  48.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     28/1800Z...ABSORBED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
 
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