Tropical Depression DEBBY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
1100 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006
 
LATEST INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEBBY JUST A SWIRL OF
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES REMAIN AT 25 KT...AND A 2200 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS CONTAINED SOME 25 KT WIND VECTORS SUPPORTING THE SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS.  BASED UPON THIS INFORMATION THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS AT 25 KT.  DEBBY IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 12
HOURS...CONTINGENT UPON NO RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
RECENT FSU CYCLONE PHASE DIAGRAMS SHOW TRANSITION TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE
INFLUENCED BY THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST REFLECTS THIS REASONING AS WELL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/10.  DEBBY IS CURRENTLY BEING INFLUENCED
BY A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AS WELL
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH ABSORPTION
OF DEBBY BY THE FRONTAL ZONE OCCURRING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 27.9N  48.5W    25 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 29.7N  48.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 32.1N  48.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     28/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/KNABB
 
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