Tropical Storm DEBBY

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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2006
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK SATELLITE
FINAL-T NUMBERS ARE DOWN TO 30 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND A NOAA
P-3 FLYING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER EXPERIMENT REPORTED A SURFACE WIND
OF 35 KT WITHIN THE REMAINING CONVECTION. BASED ON THE DROPSONDE
REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL HOLD AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WHICH MAINTAINS 35 KT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS...AS DEBBY
INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. DEBBY IS EXPECTED
TO COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 3...THEN ULTIMATELY
BECOME ABSORBED BY THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 305/15.  DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT DEBBY WILL MOVE BENEATH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS WHICH SHOULD INFLUENCE A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST...
FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD MOTION THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT AND
IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE GUNA CONSENSUS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      25/2100Z 24.9N  44.7W    35 KT
 12HR VT     26/0600Z 26.2N  46.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     26/1800Z 28.2N  48.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     27/0600Z 30.3N  49.1W    40 KT
 48HR VT     27/1800Z 32.7N  48.5W    45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     28/1800Z 39.0N  43.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     29/1800Z 46.0N  34.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM
 
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FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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