Tropical Storm DEBBY

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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL
CHANGE IN DEBBY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT
SOUTHERLY SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE CYCLONE WITH THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION DISPLACED A LITTLE NORTH OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER. 
ADDITIONALLY...DEBBY IS EXHIBITING A BURSTING TYPE PATTERN IN ITS
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.  SINCE THE SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT-TERM...ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
SHOWN DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS.  THE UPPER FLOW MAY BECOME A BIT
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING THEREAFTER.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A HURRICANE MAY NOT COME UNTIL IT NEARS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT DAYS 4 AND 5.  THIS SAME TROUGH IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN DEBBY'S EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY DAY 5. 
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS TO DELAY
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE BY ONE DAY. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. DEBBY SHOULD CONTINUE ON A
GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
NEAR THE AZORES. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH
INTO A WEAKNESS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...
AND ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST.  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/2100Z 21.3N  39.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     25/0600Z 22.3N  41.9W    45 KT
 24HR VT     25/1800Z 23.8N  44.9W    45 KT
 36HR VT     26/0600Z 25.4N  47.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     26/1800Z 27.1N  49.5W    55 KT
 72HR VT     27/1800Z 30.9N  51.3W    55 KT
 96HR VT     28/1800Z 35.0N  49.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     29/1800Z 40.1N  44.0W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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FORECASTER RHOME/FRANKLIN
 
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