Tropical Depression CHRIS
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1500 UTC FRI AUG 04 2006
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) 1(12)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 7(20) X(20) 1(21)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) 1(13)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 2(13)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
LA PESCO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) X(16)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 1 9(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16)
SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MAYAGUANA 34 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND TURK 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) 1(15)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 10(21) 1(22) X(22)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) X(14) 1(15)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) 1(19) X(19)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) X(17) 1(18) X(18)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 216N 735W 34 17 8(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
12 216N 735W 50 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
12 216N 735W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
24 220N 761W 34 X 23(23) 7(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31)
24 220N 761W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
24 220N 761W 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
36 225N 786W 34 X 3( 3) 18(21) 5(26) 2(28) X(28) X(28)
36 225N 786W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
36 225N 786W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
48 232N 813W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 6(23) X(23) X(23)
48 232N 813W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
48 232N 813W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
72 243N 865W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 6(23) 1(24)
72 243N 865W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7)
72 243N 865W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
96 250N 915W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) 4(20)
96 250N 915W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6)
96 250N 915W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
120 255N 970W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13)
120 255N 970W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
120 255N 970W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30 35 35 35 40 45 50
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
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