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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
2100 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14)
KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 6(21)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 3(23)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 19(22) 7(29) 3(32)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 20(29) 4(33) 1(34)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12)
HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 5(14)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) 4(19)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 2(21)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 3(11)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) 1(13)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 13(23) 3(26) X(26)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18)
SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18)
PONCE 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X 5( 5) 17(22) 4(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27)
SAN JUAN 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X 18(18) 13(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 11(11) 6(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
SAINT CROIX 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 25 28(53) 2(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 3 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 15 5(20) X(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
BARBUDA 34 64 1(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65)
BARBUDA 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 34 16 1(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HR POSITIONS KT
12 183N 626W 34 42 19(61) 1(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) X(62)
12 183N 626W 50 8 4(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
12 183N 626W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
24 191N 645W 34 1 32(33) 14(47) 1(48) X(48) 1(49) X(49)
24 191N 645W 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15)
24 191N 645W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
36 199N 666W 34 X 3( 3) 31(34) 9(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46)
36 199N 666W 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 4(15) 1(16) X(16) 1(17)
36 199N 666W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
48 205N 687W 34 X X( X) 10(10) 20(30) 8(38) 1(39) X(39)
48 205N 687W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13)
48 205N 687W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
72 215N 730W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 8(31) 2(33)
72 215N 730W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
72 215N 730W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
96 225N 770W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) 5(24)
96 225N 770W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8)
96 225N 770W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
120 235N 805W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16)
120 235N 805W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
120 235N 805W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
- - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 45 45 50 50 50 55 55
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC