ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 0900 UTC TUE AUG 01 2006 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 6(22) GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 10(25) 4(29) MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) 8(32) 1(33) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 6(14) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) 3(17) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) 3(15) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20) 5(25) 1(26) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 3(19) X(19) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PONCE 34 X X( X) 10(10) 11(21) 4(25) 1(26) X(26) PONCE 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) SAN JUAN 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 11(30) 4(34) 1(35) X(35) SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) SAINT THOMAS 34 X 5( 5) 31(36) 5(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 X 4( 4) 21(25) 4(29) 1(30) X(30) 1(31) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 35(35) 11(46) 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 1 28(29) 5(34) X(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BARBUDA 34 10 38(48) 2(50) X(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) BARBUDA 50 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) ANTIGUA 34 7 27(34) 1(35) X(35) 1(36) X(36) X(36) ANTIGUA 50 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) AVES 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 173N 610W 34 31 19(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) 12 173N 610W 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 12 173N 610W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 24 182N 632W 34 X 33(33) 14(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) 24 182N 632W 50 X 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 24 182N 632W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 36 190N 653W 34 X 4( 4) 30(34) 9(43) 3(46) X(46) 1(47) 36 190N 653W 50 X X( X) 10(10) 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) 36 190N 653W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 48 199N 675W 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 20(29) 8(37) 2(39) 1(40) 48 199N 675W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) 48 199N 675W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 72 213N 712W 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 8(32) 2(34) 72 213N 712W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 72 213N 712W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 96 225N 745W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) 4(26) 96 225N 745W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 96 225N 745W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 120 240N 775W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 120 240N 775W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 120 240N 775W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 50 50 50 55 55 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC