ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006 THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BROAD AND POORLY-DEFINED WITHIN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAD A DIFFICULT TIME FINDING THE CENTER AT 850 MB. DROPSONDES NEAR THE ESTIMATED 850 MB CENTER INDICATED LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 30-36 KT WERE OBSERVED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 30 KT BASED ON THESE WINDS AND AN EARLIER 30 KT SYNOPTIC OBSERVATION FROM GRAND TURK. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISRUPT ANY CONVECTION TRYING TO FORM NEAR THE CENTER. GIVEN THAT THE CIRCULATION IS WEAKER THAN IT WAS 12 HOURS AGO...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT INDICATE RESTRENGTHING BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS PRIOR TO NEARING THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA. INSTEAD IT WILL WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN 2-3 DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS CLOSELY...BUT SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CHRIS MAINTAINING A CLOSED CIRCULATION...WHICH MAY NOT HAPPEN. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED AS CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING SOUTH OF A STRONG LOW/MID- TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/2100Z 21.4N 72.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 05/0600Z 21.7N 74.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 05/1800Z 22.1N 76.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 06/0600Z 22.6N 79.4W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 06/1800Z 23.2N 82.0W 30 KT...ALONG COAST OF CUBA 72HR VT 07/1800Z 24.2N 87.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 08/1800Z 25.0N 92.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 09/1800Z 25.5N 98.0W 45 KT...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:35 UTC