Tropical Storm CHRIS

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
1100 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN REDEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
CHRIS TONIGHT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER FULLY EXPOSED. IN
ADDITION...THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FOUND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 43 KT DURING ITS FINAL PASSES THROUGH THE STORM. THESE DATA
INDICATE THAT CHRIS IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT MAXIMUM
WINDS. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW THE STORM APPROACHING THE COL
BETWEEN A PAIR OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOWS...ONE OVER FLORIDA AND
THE OTHER A FEW HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. IF CHRIS
REMAINS IN THE COL AREA... SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY ALL OF
THE GLOBAL MODELS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS ALLOW CHRIS TO AT LEAST
MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS ALSO
INDICATES THE STORM COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BEFORE NEARING CUBA
IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. SINCE THE CONVECTION AROUND THE STORM IS A
RELATIVELY NEW FEATURE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHORT-TERM...A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND SHIPS. IF THE STORM SURVIVES ITS INTERACTION WITH
CUBA...IT MIGHT FIND A LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WARM GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST COULD BE CONSERVATIVE DURING
THAT PERIOD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10... A TOUCH FASTER THAN BEFORE.
A LOW TO MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...KEEPING THE
MOTION GENERALLY A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST. SOME ACCELERATION IS
ALSO FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE PASSES DIRECTLY SOUTH OF THE CORE OF
RIDGE AXIS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NUDGED A LITTLE SOUTH
TONIGHT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS DISPLACED A LITTLE SOUTHWARD
AS WELL.  THIS NEW TRACK IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS THAT MAINTAIN THE CIRCULATION OF CHRIS.  AFTER
THE STORM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THIS HIGH
COULD INDUCE A MORE WESTWARD MOTION IN THE LONG-TERM AND THIS IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/0300Z 20.8N  69.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N  70.9W    35 KT
 24HR VT     05/0000Z 21.4N  73.4W    35 KT
 36HR VT     05/1200Z 21.8N  76.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     06/0000Z 22.3N  78.9W    35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 72HR VT     07/0000Z 23.5N  84.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     08/0000Z 24.5N  89.0W    35 KT
120HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  94.5W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
 
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