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Tropical Storm CHRIS (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 03 2006
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND WINDS OF 39 KT AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 800
FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF CHRIS.  USING STANDARD REDUCTION
VALUES THIS WOULD CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS JUST BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH.  SINCE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE THAT THERE ARE A FEW
SPOTS OF TROPICAL STORM WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE CIRCULATION...CHRIS
IS NOT BEING DOWNGRADED ON THIS PACKAGE.  A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS
REDEVELOPED NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS
CONVECTION WAS NOT VERY DEEP.  ASSUMING THAT SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE CYCLONE WILL
SPIN DOWN TO A DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.  THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE CURRENT SHEAR WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SHEAR COULD RELAX SOMEWHAT IN A FEW DAYS BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM MAY
HAVE WEAKENED TO THE EXTENT THAT IT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO COME BACK. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST SIMPLY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A DEPRESSION
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN DISSIPATION AND
REGENERATION.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  CHRIS OR ITS
REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/2100Z 20.7N  68.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     04/0600Z 20.9N  69.8W    30 KT
 24HR VT     04/1800Z 21.3N  72.0W    30 KT
 36HR VT     05/0600Z 21.7N  74.3W    30 KT
 48HR VT     05/1800Z 22.2N  76.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     06/1800Z 23.3N  82.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     07/1800Z 24.5N  87.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     08/1800Z 25.5N  92.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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